Session 1: Market Development of EVs, HEVs, and their Batteries
The first mass-produced EV and PHEV, respectively the Nissan Leaf and the Chevy Volt, entered the market last year and have only achieved mediocre sales volumes so far, in spite of heavy subsidies. At the same time, the U.S. have signed into law a set of new, radically more stringent, Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards that can barely be achieved without significant vehicle hybridization. In this session, independent industry observers and representatives of governments and carmakers will assess the various market-growth scenarios and sift through the proposed electrified-vehicle configurations to discuss the likely direction of the advanced-vehicle market and the impact on the advanced automotive battery industry.
Session Chairman: Dr. Menahem Anderman,President, Advanced Automotive Batteries
President of Advanced Automotive Batteries and founder of Total Battery Consulting, Inc., Dr. Anderman has led the development and commercialization of high-power Ni-Cd batteries, Li-Ion batteries, and ultracapacitors and spent the last ten years conducting assessments of energy-storage technologies for advanced vehicles, publishing Advanced Automotive Battery Industry Reports and chairing the AABC.
SESSION AGENDA
California Climate Policy and What it Means for PEVs Dan Sperling, Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science and Policy, UC Davis
Abstract
California is adopting a mix of policies, regulations, and incentives that together provide a coherent and durable framework for transforming vehicles and fuels. These policies and regulations have been revised or newly adopted in the past few years. They include aggressive GHG performance standards for vehicles (with special provisions for PEVs), ZEV mandate, a low carbon fuel standard, and various monetary and nonmonetary incentives. The author, as an academic and member of CARB, will describe and assess these policies and regulations.
Close Abstract
Motor Vehicle Fuels for the Future David Raney, IHS CERA, Raney Associates
Abstract
Mobility for personal and freight transport has been facilitated by the evolution of motor fuels, which continues today on a global scale. The late 1800's saw a fierce competition between electricity and refined petroleum with the winner becoming clearly evident as early as 1915 with millions of internal combustion vehicles on the road compared to less than 50,000 electric cars. The consideration of new fuels, including electricity, for mobility is renewed today driven by different pressures including:
a search for renewables;
the concept of peak oil;
energy security and national sovereignty; and,
the overall need to reduce carbon emissions from combustion.
Yet, the timeline for a viable and sustained market for new fuels is highly uncertain, as support for alternative fuels comes primarily today in the form of government subsidy or regulatory mandate.
Development of cellulosic ethanol at production scale is still perhaps a decade or more away.
Hydrogen is still a viable candidate but the infrastructure hurdle remains a challenge
Electricity faces the challenges of effective access to specific populations as well as the battery – vehicle combination
Refined petroleum faces global challenges due to quality and increased risk of environmental degradation
Petroleum markets and refined motor fuels are highly complex, as are issues relative to alternative fuels including electricity; mandates by themselves in no way guarantee a successful market. This discussion will attempt to bring clarity and understanding relative to these issues and realistic projections for fuels of the future.
Close Abstract
Market Challenges for PHEV Introduction Michael Lord, National Sales Manager, Advanced Technology Group, Toyota Technical Center
Abstract
Vehicle electrification will play an important role in manufactures plans to meet long term goals for developing sustainable mobility. Toyota has a portfolio approach to these technologies including Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) and Fuel Cell Hybrid Vehicles (FCHV) all building upon our core Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) technology. While policy initiatives and regulatory requirements are strong drivers for electrification of automobile transportation, the success of this technology will ultimately be determined by how well the products will be accepted by customers in the market. This presentation will discuss:
Important drivers of these advanced technologies;
Toyota's experience with hybrid technology introduction and the considerable time it has taken to be recognized by mainstream consumers;
Analysis of the benefits of smaller battery applications like the PHEV Prius; and
Usage data from the 2010MY PHEV Demonstration program.
The presentation will discuss international market trends for electrified vehicles and their batteries. It will include analyses of market drivers, challenges, and trends as well as vehicle and battery market forecasts.
Advanced Automotive Battery Busines
EV Market by Automake
Close Abstract
Meeting the Cost, Performance, and Durability Requirements of the xEV Automotive Market Martin Klein, Director of Engineering, LG Chem Power, Inc.
Abstract
This presentation looks at real-world challenges and opportunities for reducing battery system costs while maintaining responsiveness to customers' evolving performance, functional, and durability demands. This is presented through a case study comparing three large battery packs:
n kWh air-cooled HEV-type application with auxiliary outputs
2n kWh liquid-cooled PHEV-type application
5n kWh liquid-cooled BEV-type application
A brief overview of xEV pack requirements is given, highlighting differences that drive both innovation and cost, followed by a pack-by-pack comparison across several cost categories, including
Materials
Tooling
Manufacturing/Labor
Engineering (Design, development and test)
Opportunities are discussed for cost reductions through
Volume increases through part communization
Part count reduction
Requirements rationalization
Other techniques
The presentation concludes with a summary and discussion of next steps toward affordable cost realization.
Close Abstract
Can Battery Makers Generate Profits in the Automotive Market? Hideo Takeshita, Vice President, Institute of Information Technology
Abstract
2011-2012 xEV Li-ion production and sales status
2011-2012 xEV Li-ion supplier and automotive OEM relationship
2012-2020 xEV Li-ion possible sales forecast
Summary of xEV Li-ion manufacturing capability of major suppliers
Summary of material and components used in 1st gen. xEV Li-ion
