The first session of AABTAM evaluated the potential of the various xEV architectures on the Asian and international markets and discussed the likely direction of the global xEV market and its impact
on the xEV battery industry.
President of Advanced Automotive Batteries and founder of Total Battery Consulting, Inc., Dr. Anderman has led the development and commercialization of high-power Ni-Cd batteries, Li-Ion batteries, and
ultracapacitors and spent the last ten years conducting assessments of energy-storage technologies for advanced vehicles, publishing Advanced Automotive Battery Industry Reports and chairing the
AABC.
Session Chairman: Michael Lord, Senior Principal Engineer, Vehicle Regulation and Certification Engineering,
Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing NA
Michael Lord is a Senior Principal Engineer in Vehicle Regulation & Certification Engineering for Toyota Technical Center (TTC), the North American research arm of Toyota Motor Engineering &
Manufacturing North America (TEMA). Mr. Lord has a B.A. in Physics from the University of Pennsylvania and studied Japanese language at Sophia University in Japan before joining Toyota Motor Corporation
in 1987. In 1993, he transferred to TTC where he works closely with Toyota engineering and US regulators on issues related to future powertrains including the On-Board Diagnostic (OBD), Low-Emission
Vehicle (LEV), Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulations.
SESSION AGENDA
U.S. Electrified Vehicle Market and CARB ZEV Regulation Impact Michael Lord, Senior Principal Engineer, Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing
Toyota is committed to advancing vehicle electrification in the US market with 12 models of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs), the Prius Plug-in Hybrid, the RAV4 EV, the iQ EV and, in 2015,
our Fuel Cell (electric) Vehicle (FCV).
In the 2013MY, there were 15 models of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) offered for sale by nearly a dozen manufacturers and it is expected that these offerings will increase significantly
in 2014. This presentation will take a closer look at the state of the PEV market and will touch upon the following:
PEV Usage Data
Owner Demographics
Market Data and Drivers
Regional Market Differences
Much of the sales growth is driven by California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulation which requires manufacturers to sell an increasing number of ZEVs with an overall target
for compliance of approximately 15% of sales in 2025. This presentation will also provide a brief review of the ZEV regulation while assessing the current state of market development
with a focus on customer acceptance.
Competition and Cooperation in Asia xEV-Battery Industry and Market Mark Lu, Certified Senior Industrial Analyst, Industrial Economics & Knowledge Center (IEK), Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI)
For the global xEV and related battery players, Asia market may become the next growing opportunity. China, Japan, Korea and South-East Asia countries involve in the xEV promotion and
provide policy subsidy. However, there are still some barriers like trade protectionism, local competitors exist. Facing the attractive and threatening status, cooperation method
may another better way for global and local players both. This presentation will introduce the competition and cooperation in Asia xEV market as below:
Present Asia xEV and Battery Market Potential: China, Japan, Korea, HK and South-east Asia.
Competition Status:
Trade Protectionism
Battery Technology Sharing Request
Local Venders Threatening
Cooperation Viewpoint:
Local Strategy for Assembly, Production and Material Supply Chain
50/50 Joint Venture ICE Experience in xEV?
For the Joint Venture, not only company can choose…
Market Trends for xEV Batteries Hideo Takeshita, President and CEO, B3 Corporation
Five years have passed since the start of mass production of Li-ion battery for xEV in 2009. Market expansion at this moment is a bit slower than the original expectation but the quality
and technical reliability of Li-ion is proven by the first generation chemistry and cell structure. With the second generation product using advanced NCM cathode, xEV and battery market
will enter the second stage from CY15. At the presentation, the following topics are discussed to understand the short to long term market trends.
Original xEV market forecast until 2012
LIB supplier status for xEV; shipment volume & MWh, production capacity
OEM-battery supplier relationship update
Cost composition of xEV cell/module/pack
Technology & Cost roadmap for prismatic & pouch type cell
Outlook for 48V Micro HEV
xEV Market Direction: the Role of Regulations, Customer Interest, and Battery Technology Menahem Anderman, President, Advanced Automotive Batteries
The current wave of vehicle electrification started in 1997 with the introduction of the Toyota Prius. Regardless of the level of electrification, geographical region, and class of vehicle,
three factors played a key role in vehicle development and market offerings: i) regulations and incentives from governments, ii) customer interest, and iii) vehicle and (predominantly)
battery technology.
This presentation will show how the interactions of these three factors continue to shape the new electrified-vehicle offerings from micro-hybrids to full EVs, with the European CO2 legislation, the California Air Resources Board’s Zero-Emission-Vehicle legislation, and the Chinese New-Energy Vehicle laws driving different vehicle offerings in the world’s
three largest automotive markets.
We will discuss:
Vehicle architectures from micro-hybrid to full EV
Battery-technology solution for each architecture
xEV market
xEV-battery market
Market Update on China LIB Industry: from Materials to xEV Xiaoyu Zhang, Analyst, China Industrial Association of Power Sources
Currently, environmental issues like air pollution can no longer be overlooked in China, where developing new-energy vehicles xEV becomes a solution and the foremost priority over the next
six years to 2020. The government aims to achieve a new-energy vehicle sales of 500,000 units annually by 2015, and the investment in this industry would be at least 10 billion RMB per
year. However, the ultimate goal is not only for government demonstration, but to push xEV in everyday life as well. In addition, lithium-ion batteries (LIB) are considered as the key
components for xEV. Taking this background, the market update on China LIB industry in 2013 will be fully presented in this report.
Upstream: LIB materials review by segment
Cathode
Anode
Separator
Electrolyte
Midstream: LIB
LIB review: from mobile devices to xEV application
Key LIB players assessment
Downstream: xEV in China
xEV market: government attitude vs. customer interest
Strategy trend of main OEMs
The presentation will end with a forecast on key factors to succeed in the battery business in China based on the previous discussion.
Chinese xEV Market Development Jack Zhang, Chief Executive Officer, Gaogong Industry Research Institute
The Chinese xEV market has experienced difficult time since government policies makers have been wavering in developing of HEV or EV in the past years. To make saver EVs, all the Chinese
EV makers choose low energy capacity cells which take LiFePO4 as cathode material. Low driving mileage and lack of battery charge station or poles are two main factors that
xEVs are mostly used in public transportation. With Tesla presenting its super performance features, Chinese government is making new subsidies policies to promote the xEVs around the
country and enterprises are investing huge capital in developing high capacity cells and xEVs, especially EVs. However, following issues have to be addressed:
Government has to unite with private enterprises to build up its infrastructure facilities;
Local markets have to be opened to non-local xEVs makers;
High energy capacity cells have to be developed and chosen by xEVs makers;
Chinese xEVs makers have to promote their xEVs’ performance to cope with foreign competitors;
Summary: Chinese xEV market is explosive in every sense of the word and will be the main targets for most xEV makers from the world.
